COT Report for Gasoline Traders: RBOB Positioning, Stocks, and the Crack

Key takeaways

• RBOB gasoline is a 349,514-contract market in the report dated 25 August 2026, small enough that positioning genuinely crowds, and the physical trade is 77.0% of open interest.
• Managed Money is net long 79,858 contracts with a long-to-short ratio of 7.03. The 156-week COT Index is 78.6, just under the crowded threshold, and it has risen for three consecutive reports.
• Gasoline stocks were 205,669 thousand barrels for the week ending 28 August 2026, the lowest reading for that calendar week in five years and 4.2% below the lowest of the prior five.
• The gasoline crack against WTI was 43.05 $/bbl on 1 September 2026, the 72.6th percentile of 270 daily observations since June 2025, after touching 63.56 on 28 August.
• Gasoline is the only refined product with an inventory base rate that clears our publication bar: stocks above the seasonal band preceded a mean +6.67% over 8 weeks, raw n=296, independent n=37, t=+1.95.

Introduction

Gasoline is the refined product where positioning is most likely to be crowded and least likely to be read properly. It is a small book by energy standards, it has a violent seasonal demand cycle, and the single variable that decides whether a long position is comfortable is not the price of gasoline at all. It is the crack, the margin between gasoline and the crude it is refined from.

This guide covers which cohorts to read in RBOB, how to place stocks against the five-year band, why the crack is the interesting variable for products, what the current reading looks like, and which parts of that combination our own history can actually support.

The Contract

The COT series is GASOLINE RBOB (CFTC code 111659), reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, 42,000 gallons per contract, delivered at New York Harbor. It replaced the older unleaded gasoline contract, and the CFTC history for RBOB in this form runs back to 2006.

Two features shape how it trades.

It is small. Open interest of 349,514 contracts against 2,482,663 in NYMEX WTI. A fund book that would be unremarkable in crude is a crowd in RBOB.

It is seasonal in the physical, not just in sentiment. Summer-grade and winter-grade gasoline are different products with different vapour-pressure specifications and different costs. The changeover moves the spot price on the calendar rather than on the news, which matters when you are reading a crack spread across early September.

Which Cohorts Matter

From the report dated 25 August 2026:

Managed Money is the crowding cohort. Long 93,109 against short 13,251 is a long-to-short ratio of 7.03. Seven longs for every short is a one-sided book. That ratio is often more informative in a small market than the net figure, because it says how little of the position is hedged internally.

Producer/Merchant is the refiner. Net short 95,317 and 77.0% of open interest, the largest physical footprint of any market in the energy complex we track. Refiners sell gasoline forward because they are structurally long the product the moment crude enters the unit. Their net short is a measure of how much production has been priced, not a directional view, and it grows when margins are good enough to lock in.

Swap Dealers are small here. Net long 16,049. Unlike gas, gasoline does not carry a large intermediated hedging book, so the Producer/Merchant line reads more directly.

The practical rule is the same as in every product market: read Managed Money for crowding, read the refiner line for how much of the physical is already sold forward, and check the long-to-short ratio before you trust the net.

The Current Reading

Managed Money net position in RBOB, from the CFTC weekly file:

The state COTInsight labels here is Building Long: the net position is rising, it has risen for three reports running, and the COT Index at 78.6 sits just under the 80 line we treat as crowded. Open interest rose from 307,160 to 349,514 over the same four weeks, up 13.8%, so this is new money arriving rather than shorts leaving.

A z-score of +0.95 is not an extreme. It says positioning is about one standard deviation above its own 52-week mean. The COT Index at 78.6 is the stretched-looking number, and the two disagree because they measure different windows. That distinction is worked through in COT Index explained and the z-score.

Stocks Against the Band

From the EIA weekly petroleum status report, week ending 28 August 2026:

• Total motor gasoline stocks: 205,669 thousand barrels. The five-year band for that calendar week runs 205,669 to 219,242, with an average of 214,601. The current print is the base of the band, which is to say the lowest reading for that week of the year in five years.
• Against the five years before this one, the lowest week-35 reading was 214,746 thousand barrels in 2023. Stocks are 4.2% below that, and 5.4% below the average of those five years.

That is a genuinely tight inventory picture by the standards of the last half decade, and it arrives at the end of the driving season with refinery utilisation at 98.0%.

What the band does and does not say. It places the current level against the same calendar week in the five most recent years. It does not say inventories are too low, and it is not a forecast. The direction language attached to inventory states across the industry is, on our own measurement, backwards, which is the subject of the next section.

The Crack Is the Variable

For a refined product, the stock level is not the most informative fundamental. The crack spread is: the product price minus the crude price, in dollars per barrel, which is the refiner's gross margin and the reason the barrel gets processed at all.

The gasoline crack against WTI, using the NY Harbor conventional gasoline spot:

• 1 September 2026: 43.05 $/bbl, the 72.6th percentile of 270 daily observations since 18 June 2025.
• That window runs from 15.12 to 63.56 $/bbl with a median of 27.38, so the current level is rich against the last year even at the 73rd percentile.
• It printed 63.56 on 28 August and 62.07 on 31 August before falling to 43.05 on 1 September, as WTI rose from 84.57 to 91.48 $/bbl and the gasoline spot fell from 3.527 to 3.203 $/gal.

Why it matters for positioning. In our study of gasoline back to 2007, funds are crowded long most often when the crack is already rich, and rich cracks compress. Sorting 829 weekly observations into crack quintiles, the richest quintile (n=158) saw the crack narrow by a median 3.42 $/bbl over the following 8 weeks while the cheapest (n=165) widened by 3.65, and the mean COT Index in the richest quintile was 60.8 against 44.4 in the cheapest.

And the honest caveat. The combined cell, crowded long into a rich crack (COT Index at or above 80 with the crack in the top fifth of its own three-year range), carries a raw n of 56, a median 8-week crack change of -3.72 $/bbl and a median price change of -5.33%. Correct for the eight-to-one overlap and that is about seven independent observations, and every t-statistic on those crossed cells sits inside plus or minus 1. Energy Radar shows the crack, its percentile and the number of observations behind it, labelled as context. It is not published as a base rate, because it cannot be.

What the Measured Record Says

We ran the pairing point in time over 1,013 weekly observations from 6 March 2007 to 18 August 2026, seasonal band built only from prior years at each date, the stock reading being the newest one public by the COT release Friday, entry at the first NY Harbor spot print on or after it, horizon 8 weeks.

Baseline for all 1,005 scorable weeks: mean +1.84%, median +1.41%, higher 53.8% of the time.

Two things follow.

High stocks preceded higher prices, not lower. The same result appears in distillate, in WTI and in natural gas. Inventories build because the price is low, and the price is what mean reverts. This is why COTInsight describes inventory states as above, inside or below the band, and never as bullish or bearish.

Gasoline is the one product cell that survives the correction. Applying our publication rule of at least 30 independent observations and a t-statistic of at least 1:

Two of fourteen tested cells qualified. Gasoline stocks above the band is one of them. Note that the distillate cell has the strongest t-statistic in the table and still fails, on independent sample size alone. We would rather publish that inconsistency than quietly drop the rule when it is inconvenient.

How to Trade Around It, Carefully

Check the crack before you read the position. A crowded long into a crack in the top of its range is a different risk from the same position with the crack cheap. The record supports that as context, not as a signal.

Watch the long-to-short ratio, not just the net. At 7.03 longs per short, there is very little internal hedging inside the Managed Money book. Liquidations from that structure are one-directional.

Respect the grade calendar. Summer and winter gasoline are different specifications. A spot price move in early September can be the changeover rather than the market, which contaminates a crack reading taken on a single day. Read it across a week.

Separate the two questions. Positioning tells you how crowded the expression of a view has become. Stocks and the crack tell you what the physical market has had to absorb. Neither tells you the view is right.

Where COTInsight Fits

The RBOB gasoline market page carries the current positioning read. Inside the app, gasoline sits on the same board as around 350 other weekly-reporting markets, ranked by extremity, with the z-score, 156-week COT Index, regime state, open-interest trend and divergence check on one screen.

Ultimate adds Energy Radar, where the fundamental half of this article lives: the gasoline panel puts stocks against the seasonal band, days of supply, product supplied, refinery utilisation, exports and the crack with its percentile and observation count in one place, next to the positioning gauge, with the qualifying base rate shown and the failing cells marked as failures. Ultimate also carries historical outcome statistics per z-score bucket, the twenty-year archive, the AI commentary and the TradingView indicator.

Start with how to read Energy Radar, the field guide, or crude positioning versus inventories. Related energy markets: crude oil, NY Harbor ULSD, natural gas. Pricing is here.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which CFTC contract is gasoline?

GASOLINE RBOB, code 111659, reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, 42,000 gallons, delivered at New York Harbor. It is filed in the Disaggregated report, so Managed Money is the speculative cohort to read.

What is a gasoline crack spread?

The gasoline price minus the crude price, expressed in dollars per barrel. Because product spots are quoted per gallon, the conversion is 42 gallons to the barrel. It is the refiner's gross margin on that product, and it is the variable that decides whether refiners run hard.

Is a COT Index of 78.6 a sell signal?

No. It says the net position sits in the upper fifth of its 156-week range, which is a statement about crowding and about who is left to buy. On our measurement, crowded long in gasoline preceded a mean 8-week return of +0.12% across 208 observations, higher 46.2% of the time. That is a mild negative skew, not a signal.

Do low gasoline stocks mean higher prices?

Not in the record. Over 1,013 weekly observations from 2007 to 2026, stocks below the five-year band preceded a mean 8-week return of -2.84% (n=123), and stocks above it +6.67% (n=296). The high-stock cell is one of only two energy inventory cells that survives our correction for overlapping windows.

When is RBOB COT data updated?

Every Friday at 3:30pm Eastern, reflecting positions as of the preceding Tuesday. EIA gasoline stocks are published separately, on Wednesdays at 10:30am Eastern.