How to Read Energy Radar: Positioning and Fundamentals at a Glance
30-second answer: Energy Radar is an Ultimate panel on the WTI detail view that puts speculative positioning and EIA physical data on one screen: the WTI COT Index, crude and refined-product stocks measured against their 5-year seasonal bands, the flows that build or drain them, product cracks against WTI, and spot prices. It states where a number sits, not what that means for price. Of fourteen candidate relationships we tested between a seasonal-band position and the price that followed, exactly one clears our publication bar, and it runs opposite to the old assumption that a stock build is bearish.
What Energy Radar is
Energy Radar is a panel on COTInsight's WTI detail page, available on the Ultimate tier. It puts CFTC speculative positioning next to EIA physical data for crude oil and its refined products in one place, instead of two separate tabs. Open the WTI market page on an Ultimate account and the panel renders once positioning and fundamentals are both current for the week.
The fundamentals side covers more than crude alone: commercial crude stocks, Cushing, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, gasoline stocks, distillate stocks, propane stocks, crude production, refinery utilisation, refiner crude input, crude imports and exports, product supplied, product cracks against WTI, and WTI, Brent and product spot prices. Positioning stays WTI-specific, since gasoline and distillate carry no futures positioning input of their own, so the crowd-versus-fundamentals read applies to WTI, drawn against that wider set of EIA series.
The positioning axis: the WTI COT Index
The first input is Managed Money's net position in WTI futures, converted into the COT Index, a 0-100 rank of the current net position against its trailing 3-year range. Energy Radar reads that number as:
- COT Index >= 80: crowded long.
- COT Index 50 to 79: net long leaning.
- COT Index 21 to 49: net short leaning.
- COT Index <= 20: crowded short.
This measures how much speculative capacity is already used, not whether the position is right; a crowded long can stay crowded for weeks. For the mechanics behind the index, see the COT z-score explained inside how to read the COT report.
The fundamentals axis: EIA data against the 5-year seasonal band
Each stock series, commercial crude, Cushing, SPR, gasoline, distillate, propane, is compared against its own 5-year seasonal band for the same calendar week: the range where that series has historically sat in that same week across the last five years. That strips the normal seasonal shape out and leaves a plain read of where the current level sits.
Energy Radar states that position, above the top of the band, inside it, or below the bottom, and how far the current level sits from the 5-year average for that week. It does not attach a direction to the position by itself. Whether sitting above or below the band has meant anything for the price that followed is a separate, measured question, covered below, and the panel only answers it where the measurement actually clears a publication bar.
Reading the panel
- The headline: one line stating two facts side by side, where WTI positioning sits and where the headline inventory reading sits. It asserts no relationship between the two; it names them.
- Reading tiles: one per series, each showing the current value and units, a band-position badge (
above-band,in-band,below-band), the percent distance from the 5-year average for that week, the change versus the prior period, and a flag when a reading is at a 52-week high or low or has just crossed its 5-year average. - Charts: stocks plotted against their 5-year average as a percentage, product supplied in barrels per day, balance flows (production, refinery runs, imports, exports) as percent change on the prior week, and spot prices as percent change on the prior day.
- Product cracks: gasoline, distillate and heating oil priced against WTI, with a percentile against roughly a year of daily history. Context only; the sample behind any single crack is too small to publish as a measured base rate.
- Measured base rates: the section covered in detail below. It shows a relationship only where the underlying data clears our publication rule, and states plainly when nothing currently does.
- Data dates: the EIA reporting week behind the fundamentals, the WTI COT date behind positioning, and, where prices are shown, the more recent daily price date.
What the data actually shows: measured base rates, not assumptions
This panel used to describe a stock build as bearish and a stock draw as bullish. We tested that assumption against the record instead of asserting it. The test: for each of fourteen candidate relationships, a market's inventory sitting above or below its 5-year seasonal band, split by market (WTI as the control, gasoline, distillate, natural gas) and, for natural gas, by season, we measured the average price return over the following 8 weeks.
A relationship is only shown on the panel as a measured base rate if it clears both of two bars: at least 30 independent, non-overlapping observations, and a t-statistic of at least 1 in absolute value. The independence bar exists because 8-week windows sampled every week overlap roughly 8 to 1; a raw weekly count overstates how much distinct evidence actually exists.
One of the fourteen candidates cleared both bars. WTI crude stocks sitting above the top of their 5-year seasonal band, all seasons, drawn from 259 raw weekly observations (32 independent), produced an average forward return of +3.45% over the following 8 weeks, t = +1.49. That is a higher price following a build, the opposite of what the old bearish label asserted. It is one measured relationship with a modest sample and a t-statistic just above our own bar, not a strong edge, and it describes history, not a rule the current week is bound to follow.
The other thirteen candidates did not clear the bar, including WTI stocks sitting below the band, and every gasoline, distillate and natural gas relationship tested (natural gas broken out by season fell short on independent observations alone). Energy Radar does not display a direction for any of those; the readings for those series appear on the panel with their band position and no attached base rate.
What it is NOT
Energy Radar is not a forecast. It does not predict where WTI will trade, it carries no win rate, and no inventory state is labelled bullish or bearish. The one measured base rate above is reported with its sample size and t-statistic attached, exactly as it was measured, not as a rule for what happens next. A market can sit in the same band position for weeks with no move at all, and price can move sharply from a reading that looked unremarkable.
Where to find it, and what it takes to see it
Energy Radar lives on the WTI detail view inside the COTInsight dashboard, under the standard positioning charts. It requires an Ultimate subscription. On Pro or trial, the WTI page still shows full positioning history and z-scores, without this panel.
For the reasoning behind reading positioning and inventories together, see Crude Oil Positioning vs Inventories. For the broader WTI and Brent picture, see our COT report for crude oil traders guide. Start a free 7-day trial →
Frequently Asked Questions
What markets does Energy Radar cover?
Positioning is WTI only. Fundamentals cover the wider crude complex and its refined products: commercial crude, Cushing, SPR, gasoline, distillate and propane stocks, plus production, refinery and trade flows.
Is Energy Radar available on Pro?
No. It is an Ultimate-tier feature on the WTI detail view.
Does the COT Index in Energy Radar use the same threshold as the rest of COTInsight?
Yes: crowded long at 80 or above, crowded short at 20 or below, the same 0-100, 3-year-range COT Index used across the dashboard.
Does Energy Radar tell you whether an inventory build is bullish or bearish?
No. It states where a stock level sits against its own 5-year seasonal band and leaves it there. Whether that position has meant anything for the price that followed is a separate, measured question, and the panel only states a direction where the measurement clears a stated sample-size and significance bar. Today that is true for exactly one of fourteen relationships tested, and even there the measured direction runs opposite to what a build-is-bearish assumption would predict.
What does the Cushing figure add?
Cushing is the WTI delivery point, so its level is useful context for physical tightness there, alongside the other stock readings on the panel.
Is Energy Radar a trading signal?
No. It describes where positioning and fundamentals currently sit, with no win rate and no price target. Where a historical relationship is shown, it carries its own sample size and is described as history, not as a prediction.
Summary
- Energy Radar overlays WTI positioning (the COT Index, 0-100, 3-year range) with EIA fundamentals across crude and its refined products: stocks, flows, cracks and prices.
- Every stock reading carries a band position (above, in, or below its 5-year seasonal band) and its distance from the 5-year average, with no direction attached by default.
- We tested fourteen candidate relationships between a band position and the price that followed. One cleared our publication bar: WTI crude stocks above the band, independent n = 32, t = +1.49, average forward return +3.45% over 8 weeks, the opposite of the old assumption that a build is bearish.
- It is descriptive, not a forecast, with no win rate and no bullish or bearish label attached to any inventory state.
- It sits on the WTI detail view, Ultimate tier. See Crude Oil Positioning vs Inventories and our COT report for crude oil traders guide for the wider picture.
Data sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report (cftc.gov) and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (eia.gov), both free public sources. This article describes how to read a COTInsight product feature; it does not forecast price and is not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.