How to Read Crude Radar: Positioning and Inventories at a Glance
30-second answer: Crude Radar is an Ultimate panel on the WTI detail view that puts speculative positioning and physical inventories on one screen: the WTI COT Index (how crowded Managed Money is, 0-100), U.S. crude stocks vs their 5-year seasonal band, the Cushing level, and a one-line read of which of nine positioning-by-fundamentals states the market sits in. It is descriptive, WTI only, and not a forecast.
What Crude Radar is
Crude Radar is a panel on COTInsight's WTI detail page, available on the Ultimate tier. It overlays two inputs that normally sit in separate tabs, CFTC speculative positioning and EIA inventory data, into a single read. Open the WTI market page on an Ultimate account and the panel renders once both data sources are current for the week. It only appears on WTI; other energy markets do not have the EIA inventory input it needs. Nothing in it predicts where WTI trades next; it states two facts, crowding and seasonal deviation, and names what their combination describes as a risk condition, not a signal to act on.
The positioning axis: the WTI COT Index
The first input is Managed Money's net position in WTI futures, converted into the COT Index, a 0-100 rank of the current net position against its trailing 3-year range. Crude Radar buckets that number into three states:
- COT Index >= 80: crowded long.
- COT Index <= 20: crowded short, the mirror case.
- Everything in between: neutral, with room to build in either direction.
This measures how much speculative capacity is already used, not whether the position is right; a crowded long can stay crowded for weeks. For the mechanics behind the index, see the COT z-score explained inside how to read the COT report.
The fundamentals axis: crude stocks vs the 5-year seasonal band
The second input is U.S. commercial crude inventories from the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The raw stock number alone is close to useless, since it moves in a predictable seasonal rhythm tied to refinery maintenance and demand cycles. Crude Radar instead compares the current level to its 5-year seasonal band, where inventories have historically sat in that same calendar week across the last five years, stripping the seasonal noise out and leaving the part of the move that reflects actual supply and demand.
- Above the band: a counter-seasonal build, stocks rising faster than normal. Bearish for the physical balance.
- Below the band: a counter-seasonal draw, stocks falling faster than normal. Bullish.
- Inside the band: inventories tracking the season as expected. Neutral.
Reading the panel line by line
- The label: a short name for the current cell, e.g. "Crowded long into bearish fundamentals" or "Balanced." It names the state, not a verdict.
- The risk sentence: one line on what the combination means, flagging it when a counter-seasonal corner is active.
- COT Index: the current 0-100 reading behind the positioning axis above.
- Crude stocks vs the 5-year band: where the latest EIA total crude figure sits relative to the seasonal range.
- Cushing: the crude stock level at Cushing, Oklahoma, the WTI delivery point. Context only; it does not feed the classification.
- Data dates: the EIA reporting week and CFTC COT date behind the numbers.
The nine reads
Cross the three positioning states against the three fundamentals states and there are nine combinations. Most describe an unremarkable market; the two corners where the crowd and physical picture point opposite ways are worth slowing down for.
| Positioning \ Inventories | Above band (bearish) | Inside band (neutral) | Below band (bullish) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (>=80) | Elevated long-flush risk | Crowded long, fundamentals neutral | Crowded long, fundamentals supportive |
| Neutral | Bearish fundamentals, positioning neutral | Balanced | Bullish fundamentals, positioning neutral |
| Crowded short (<=20) | Crowded short, fundamentals supportive of shorts | Crowded short, fundamentals neutral | Elevated short-squeeze risk |
Elevated long-flush risk (crowded long plus a counter-seasonal build) is a market where most buyers who wanted in already are, while inventories build faster than the season calls for, leaving less room to absorb disappointing news.
Elevated short-squeeze risk (crowded short plus a counter-seasonal draw) is the mirror image: the short side is heavily populated while stocks draw down faster than normal, so the physical market is tightening underneath a crowd positioned for the opposite.
The center cell, Balanced, is positioning and fundamentals both near their norms. The remaining cells describe alignment, crowding meeting the matching seasonal direction, a less fragile setup than the two corners above.
What it is NOT
Crude Radar is not a forecast. It does not predict where WTI will trade, it carries no win rate, and it attaches no price target to any of the nine reads. The label and risk sentence describe crowding and seasonal deviation, nothing more. A market can sit in the same cell for weeks with no move at all, and it can move sharply from a cell that looked unremarkable. Treat it as one input into your own read of WTI, not a standalone trigger to enter or exit a position.
Where to find it, and what it takes to see it
Crude Radar lives on the WTI detail view inside the COTInsight dashboard, under the standard positioning charts. It requires an Ultimate subscription. On Pro or trial, the WTI page still shows full positioning history and z-scores, without this panel.
For the reasoning behind reading positioning and inventories together, see Crude Oil Positioning vs Inventories. For the broader WTI and Brent picture, see our COT report for crude oil traders guide. Start a free 7-day trial →
Frequently Asked Questions
What markets does Crude Radar cover?
WTI only. It does not extend to Brent or other energy markets.
Is Crude Radar available on Pro?
No. It is an Ultimate-tier feature on the WTI detail view.
Does the COT Index in Crude Radar use the same threshold as the rest of COTInsight?
Yes: crowded long at 80 or above, crowded short at 20 or below, the same 0-100, 3-year-range COT Index used across the dashboard.
What does the Cushing figure add if it is not part of the nine-cell read?
Cushing is the WTI delivery point, so its level is useful context for physical tightness there, but it does not change which of the nine cells the market is classified into.
Is Crude Radar a trading signal?
No. It describes crowding and seasonal deviation, with no win rate and no price target. It is context for your own judgment, not a buy or sell signal.
Summary
- Crude Radar overlays two inputs for WTI only: the COT Index (positioning, 0-100, 3-year range) and crude stocks vs the 5-year seasonal band (fundamentals).
- The panel shows the label, a one-line risk read, the COT Index, stocks vs the band, the Cushing level, and both data dates.
- Nine combinations exist; the two counter-seasonal corners, crowded long into a build and crowded short into a draw, describe elevated flush or squeeze risk. The center is Balanced.
- It is descriptive, not a forecast, with no win rate and no price target attached to any read.
- It sits on the WTI detail view, Ultimate tier. See Crude Oil Positioning vs Inventories and our COT report for crude oil traders guide for the wider picture.
Data sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report (cftc.gov) and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (eia.gov). This article describes how to read a COTInsight product feature; it does not forecast price and is not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.