Europe's Gas Storage at the Floor of Its Range, Funds Short US Gas Instead: October 2026

Key takeaways

• On gas day 2 October 2026, EU gas storage held 817 TWh, 17.5% below its 5-year average for that week and level with the lowest reading for that week in the five-year window. Storage was 72.15% full.
• Investment funds are not leaning into it. Their net long in Dutch TTF was 164.5 million MWh on the report for 25 September, down from 219.4 million four weeks earlier, a COT Index of 64, which is neither crowded nor light.
• In the US the picture is reversed. Lower 48 storage was 3,415 Bcf on 25 September, 0.1% above its 5-year average, while Managed Money was crowded short Henry Hub: net short 132,849 contracts on 29 September, a COT Index of 10.
• The US short doubled in a week, from 65,632 to 132,849 contracts.
• Gas Radar and Energy Radar report each of these readings side by side. Neither combines them into a forecast.

Introduction

Two gas markets sit either side of the Atlantic, joined by LNG. In each, one report shows where the gas is and another shows where the speculators are. This October the two markets look like mirror images: Europe has less gas in store than in any of the last five years for this time of year, and its funds are trimming longs; the US has a normal amount, and its funds are crowded short.

This note sets out what Gas Radar shows for TTF and what Energy Radar shows for Henry Hub. It describes data. It does not forecast prices.

Europe: the Gas Is Low

On gas day 2 October 2026, EU storage held 817 TWh. The 5-year average for that week is 990 TWh, so storage is about 173 TWh, or 17.5%, short of a typical year. The reading sits at the base of the 5-year seasonal band, level with the lowest level for that week in the window.

In fill terms, storage was 72.15% full, up 1.53 points on the week. Net injection averaged 2,354 GWh a day over the week, up 231 GWh a day on the previous week but slower than the four weeks before it. The injection season is still running, but it has not yet brought storage back inside its band.

Europe: the Funds Are Not Chasing It

The positioning does not reflect alarm. On the report for 25 September, investment funds held a net long of 164.5 million MWh in ICE Endex TTF. Four weeks earlier it was 219.4 million, and a week earlier 191.3 million: the position has been cut in each of the last five weeks.

That leaves a COT Index of 64 and a 52-week z-score of +0.18, close to the middle of its own ranges. COTInsight's regime classifier calls this a Flip Zone: a position near its average that is still moving. The crowd is not positioned for a winter squeeze, and it has been reducing what length it had.

The US: Normal Storage, Crowded Short

Across the Atlantic, Lower 48 working gas stood at 3,415 Bcf in the EIA week ending 25 September, 0.1% above the 5-year average for that week and well inside its seasonal band. All five regions are inside their bands. Only the South Central salt caverns, a subset of that region, sit at the base of theirs, at 213 Bcf, 14.7% below average.

Managed Money is positioned for plenty. On the report for 29 September it was net short 132,849 Henry Hub contracts, a COT Index of 10 and a z-score of -1.69: crowded short. The short more than doubled in the week, from 65,632 contracts, which the regime classifier marks as Building Short. The positioning cycle has just entered its Washed out phase.

Henry Hub spot was $3.18 per MMBtu on 29 September. US LNG exports, the link between the two markets, were 18.8% higher in July than a year earlier, the latest month in the monthly series.

What the Data Does Not Say

Gas Radar does not forecast TTF. TTF has no price series on COTInsight, so there are no outcome statistics for its positioning: the panel can say where the crowd and the storage sit, not what followed similar readings.

For Henry Hub, the crowded-short reading has only 10 independent observations behind it in the history available, below the 30 we require to publish a measured outcome, so none is shown.

Neither panel treats low storage as bullish or high storage as bearish. In our tests on US energy inventories, a stock series' position against its band did not produce a relationship with later prices strong enough to publish in most cases, and the two that cleared the bar ran opposite to the textbook.

What to Watch Next

• The end of the EU injection season. Whether storage climbs back inside its band before withdrawals begin decides how much cushion Europe takes into winter.
• Whether TTF funds keep cutting. Five straight weeks of reductions from a mid-range position is a trend in the positioning, not a signal about price.
• The US short. A short that doubled in one week from a COT Index of 10 has little room left in its own range. The next COT report, for Tuesday 6 October, is normally published on Friday 9 October.
• LNG flows. Strong US exports are the channel through which a tight Europe and a comfortable US meet.

Where COTInsight Fits

• Gas Radar (Ultimate) sets TTF positioning beside EU storage: the stock against its 5-year band, the fill and the weekly net injection.
• Energy Radar (Ultimate) does the same for Henry Hub against US storage in all five regions, with the salt caverns split out, plus production, LNG exports and consumption.
• Choose either in the dashboard's Radar filter, or compare the two contracts side by side in VS comparison (Ultimate).
• The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) plots Henry Hub's COT Index and z-score under your price chart.

See pricing or open the dashboard.

Frequently Asked Questions

How full is EU gas storage in October 2026?

On gas day 2 October 2026, EU storage held 817 TWh and was 72.15% full. That is 17.5% below the 5-year average for that week and level with the lowest reading for the week in the five-year window.

Are funds long European gas?

Moderately, and less than a month ago. Investment funds held a net long of 164.5 million MWh in ICE Endex TTF on the 25 September report, down from 219.4 million four weeks earlier. The COT Index is 64, mid-range.

Why are funds short US natural gas?

US storage is close to normal for the season, at 3,415 Bcf on 25 September. Managed Money was net short 132,849 Henry Hub contracts on 29 September, a COT Index of 10, which is in the crowded-short zone.

Does low storage mean gas prices will rise?

Not reliably. Storage below its band has not produced a measured relationship with later prices strong enough to publish in our tests, and TTF has no price series on COTInsight. This note is descriptive and is not investment advice.

Summary

On 2 October 2026, EU gas storage sat at the floor of its 5-year band, 17.5% below average and 72.15% full, while investment funds were cutting a mid-range TTF long. In the US, storage was normal for the season and Managed Money was crowded short Henry Hub after doubling its short in a week. Gas Radar and Energy Radar show each reading on its own; the judgment stays yours.