Almost Nobody Is Short Gold: COT Positioning in September 2026
Key takeaways
- On the COT report for Tuesday 15 September 2026, only 12 managed money traders held a short position in COMEX gold. Two weeks earlier there were 11. Since June 2006, just 15 earlier weeks had 12 or fewer.
- Their combined short was 8,777 contracts, the smallest since January 2025.
- The net long, 137,060 contracts, is large but not extreme. It ranks at 56 on a three-year COT Index, and the long side is less than half its February 2020 record.
- The count of managed money traders long rose from 75 to 107 between late July and 1 September. Breadth grew much faster than size.
- The other side is held by swap dealers, net short 228,014 contracts.
Introduction
Most readings of the COT report look at one number: the speculative net position. For gold this month that number says "long, but nothing unusual." The trader counts in the same report say something much sharper. The short side of the managed money book has almost emptied.
This note shows both readings, explains why they disagree, and sets out what the data can and cannot tell you. It describes positioning. It does not forecast the gold price, and it does not discuss it.
The figures come from the CFTC Disaggregated report, futures and options combined, for COMEX gold. Managed Money is the category that covers hedge funds and CTAs.
The Short Side Has Almost Emptied
Managed money trader counts and positions in gold:
| Report date | Traders long | Traders short | Contracts long | Contracts short | Net long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 July 2026 | 75 | 24 | 136,656 | 16,328 | 120,328 |
| 4 August 2026 | 83 | 16 | 141,820 | 9,422 | 132,398 |
| 18 August 2026 | 99 | 14 | 157,173 | 11,251 | 145,922 |
| 25 August 2026 | 99 | 14 | 163,217 | 11,902 | 151,315 |
| 1 September 2026 | 107 | 11 | 152,376 | 11,565 | 140,811 |
| 8 September 2026 | 103 | 13 | 148,982 | 9,434 | 139,548 |
| 15 September 2026 | 103 | 12 | 145,837 | 8,777 | 137,060 |
Twelve traders is a very small number. The CFTC has published the Disaggregated report since June 2006, 1,057 weeks before this one. Only 15 of them had 12 or fewer managed money traders short gold: one in 2007, eleven in 2009, one in 2011 and two in March 2020.
The contracts short are small too. 8,777 contracts is the lowest managed money short since 21 January 2025. For scale, in late July there were 16,328.
The long side got wider. Traders long went from 75 to 107 in five weeks. That is 32 more funds holding a long, while the short side lost 13. Long contracts per long trader actually fell, from about 1,820 to about 1,420. More funds, each holding a bit less.
Put differently, the managed money book now has more than eight long traders for every short one, and about 17 contracts long for every contract short.
Why the Net Position Does Not Look Extreme
If the short side is so thin, why is the headline reading so ordinary?
| Measure | Reading | What it compares against |
|---|---|---|
| Net long | 137,060 | |
| COT Index | 56.3 | The last 3 years of net positions |
| Z-score | +1.15 | The last 52 weeks of net positions |
| Managed money long | 145,837 | Record of 320,394, 18 February 2020 |
The COT Index is pinned by 2024. Over the last three years the net position ranged from a net short of 14,788 in October 2023 to a net long of 254,841 in September 2024. Against that range, 137,060 sits just above the middle. Our COT Index guide shows how much the lookback window changes a gold reading.
The z-score is elevated but not extreme. At +1.15 the position is above its one-year average of about 115,000, but well short of the +2 that usually marks a crowded reading.
The long side is modest by history. 145,837 contracts long is less than half the February 2020 record.
So the size of the bet is ordinary. What is unusual is how few funds are betting against it. That is the gap between the two readings, and it is why a single net number is not enough. The same point comes up in our guide to trader concentration: counts tell you how many hands hold a position, and that can change without the net moving much.
Who Is on the Other Side
Every long has a short. In gold the main short is held by swap dealers, mostly banks, who were net short 228,014 contracts on 15 September. That position grew with the managed money long: from 186,806 on 28 July to 247,152 on 25 August, the same week the managed money net long peaked.
Producers and merchants, miners, refiners and fabricators, were net short 26,250. That is far smaller than a year earlier: on 2 September 2025 they were net short 50,604.
Open interest peaked at 644,992 contracts on 25 August and was 577,454 on 15 September. Some of the late-August position was closed in the two weeks after.
What an Empty Short Side Can and Cannot Mean
It is tempting to read a thin short book as a warning: if nobody is left to sell, the next move must be down. The data does not support a claim that strong, for three reasons.
- Fifteen weeks is a small sample, and they are clustered. Eleven of them fell in 2009 and two in March 2020. They are really four episodes, and four episodes cannot establish a pattern.
- Shorts leaving is not the same as longs arriving. The recent rise in the net long came mainly from new long traders, not from existing shorts covering. Our note on whether a trend is crowded covers why the source of a move matters.
- Extremes can last. Our study of how long extreme positioning lasts found that crowded readings often persist for weeks, and the turn is rarely visible in the positioning itself.
What it does mean is narrower. The managed money short side cannot add much buying by covering, because there is little left to cover. Any further increase in the net long has to come from new longs. And if the funds that joined in August decide to leave, there is little short interest to absorb the selling.
What to Watch in the Next Reports
- Does the short count stay near 12? A return to 20 or more would mean the unusual reading was brief.
- Does the long count fall from 103? The funds that joined in August are the ones most likely to leave first.
- Do swap dealers reduce their short? Dealers usually hedge client flow, so a smaller dealer short tends to follow a smaller client long.
- Silver. Managed Money was net long 12,632 silver contracts on the same report, a COT Index of 37. The two metals are not positioned the same way.
The next COT report, for Tuesday 22 September, is published on Friday 25 September.
Where COTInsight Fits
- Free and Pro show gold's net position, COT Index, z-score and regime every week. Pro adds 10 years of weekly history and CSV export, enough to put this reading next to March 2020 yourself.
- Ultimate adds the full archive back to 2006, which is where the 2009 short-count lows sit, plus PDF reports, weekly AI commentary, the REST API and historical outcome statistics for gold's own positioning readings.
- The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) plots the COT Index, z-score and regime under the gold chart, so you can see the positioning next to price without switching tabs.
See pricing or open the dashboard. For a general introduction, start with our COT guide for gold traders.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the COT report show for gold in September 2026?
On the report for 15 September 2026, Managed Money was net long 137,060 COMEX gold contracts, with a COT Index of 56.3 and a z-score of +1.15. Only 12 managed money traders were short, holding 8,777 contracts between them.
Is gold crowded long?
By size, no: the net long is mid-range on a three-year view and the long side is less than half its 2020 record. By breadth, the short side is almost empty. Only 15 weeks since June 2006 had 12 or fewer managed money traders short.
Who is short gold futures?
Mainly swap dealers, who were net short 228,014 contracts on 15 September 2026. Producers and merchants were net short 26,250. Managed money shorts were only 8,777.
Does a small short count mean gold will fall?
Not on the evidence available. The earlier low-count weeks cluster into four episodes, too few to establish what follows. This note is descriptive and is not investment advice.
How current is this data?
It reflects positions on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The report for Tuesday 22 September is published on Friday 25 September.
Summary
On the 15 September 2026 COT report, Managed Money was net long 137,060 COMEX gold contracts, an ordinary reading by size: a COT Index of 56 and a z-score of +1.15. The trader counts are not ordinary. Only 12 managed money traders were short, with 8,777 contracts between them, a count matched or beaten in just 15 earlier weeks since 2006. The number of funds long rose from 75 to 107 between late July and early September, and swap dealers took the other side with a net short of 228,014. An almost empty short side limits how much short covering can add, and leaves little to absorb selling if the new longs leave. It does not, on the evidence available, predict the direction of the next move. Data: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated report. Not investment advice.