How to Read Grain Radar: Corn, Soybean and Wheat Positioning Against USDA's Balance Sheet
30-second answer: Grain Radar is an Ultimate panel for corn, soybeans and wheat. It answers one question: is the fund crowd leaning the same way as USDA's balance sheet, or against it? On one side is the COT Index, which shows where Managed Money sits in its own three-year range. On the other side are four lines from USDA's monthly WASDE report and how the latest report changed them. Read the two together and you can tell whether positioning is following the fundamentals or running ahead of them.
How to read the panel
Start with the gauge. The COT Index runs from 0 to 100. Above 80, Managed Money is crowded long against its own history. Below 20, it is crowded short. In between, it is neither. A reading near an edge tells you the crowd has already made its bet.
Then the four balance sheet lines, each for the marketing year USDA is projecting:
- Stocks-to-use. Projected ending stocks divided by total use. This is the one to read first. A low ratio means a thin cushion, so a weather scare or a demand surprise matters more. A high ratio means the market can absorb shocks.
- US ending stocks. What USDA expects to be left over at the end of the year. Falling estimates mean the balance is tightening.
- US exports. The demand line that moves most with competing origins and trade policy.
- World ending stocks. The global cushion behind the US number. A tight US balance matters less when the world is well supplied.
Then the revision line. Each month the panel shows how the newest WASDE changed the previous one. A cut to ending stocks tightens the picture; a raise loosens it. The direction of the revision often tells you more than its size.
Mind the two clocks. Positioning updates every week. The balance sheet updates once a month. Most weeks you are reading fresh positioning against an unchanged balance sheet.
Three questions it answers
- Is the crowd with the balance sheet or against it? Funds crowded long while USDA keeps raising ending stocks is a different situation from funds crowded long into a tightening balance.
- Did this month's WASDE change the story? The revision line shows whether the report moved the numbers that matter, or left them where they were.
- Is positioning moving on its own? When Managed Money moves hard between two WASDE releases and the balance sheet has not changed, the move is coming from somewhere else: weather, the dollar, or flows in the wider commodity complex.
What you can do with it
- Prepare for a WASDE day. Note where the COT Index sits before the release. After it, check which way the revision went. A crowded book meeting a revision against it is the setup most worth your attention.
- Spot a stretched crowd. A COT Index near 80 or 20 tells you how much of the move is already in positioning. Combined with a balance sheet that is moving the other way, it is a reason to look closer, not a trade on its own.
- Compare the three crops. Choose Grain Radar in the dashboard's Radar filter to see corn, soybeans and wheat side by side, and see which one the crowd is leaning into hardest.
- Keep it on your chart. The COTInsight TradingView indicator puts the same COT Index and z-score under price, so you see the positioning side while you trade.
What it will not tell you
Grain Radar does not predict prices. The balance sheet lines are projections, so they carry no five-year seasonal band, and the panel shows a measured base rate only where the record clears our bar of 30 independent observations. For wheat, the positioning is the Chicago soft red winter contract, while USDA's US balance sheet covers all wheat classes; keep that difference in mind when the two disagree. For the cohorts behind grain positioning, read the COT report for grain traders.
Summary
Grain Radar shows you where the fund crowd sits and where USDA's numbers sit, for corn, soybeans and wheat, with the latest monthly revision between them. Use it before and after WASDE days, to find the crop the crowd is leaning into hardest, and to judge whether positioning is following the fundamentals. The judgment stays yours. Grain Radar is part of Ultimate; see pricing or open the dashboard.