Funds Are Crowded Into the Peso and the Real: COT Positioning in September 2026

Key takeaways

• On the COT report for Tuesday 8 September 2026, Leveraged Funds were net long 82,179 Mexican peso contracts and 24,871 Brazilian real contracts. Both sit in COTInsight's Extreme Long regime.
• The peso long is the largest since 11 June 2024. It was built over seven weeks, from 54,569 on 21 July.
• The real long has been exceeded in only 5 of 749 earlier weeks since April 2011, and more than a third of it arrived in one week: +8,825 contracts.
• Both currencies have been at an extreme long in the same week only four times before this, since 2011. What the peso did next was mixed, and four cases prove nothing.
• The last time each currency was this long, it was a one-week spike that was gone by the next report. The coming reports show whether this time is different.

Introduction

In late June we described the dollar as a crowded trade: Leveraged Funds were short the euro, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar at or near extremes, with one exception. The Mexican peso was the only major currency where funds were still adding longs.

Eleven weeks later, that exception has grown into an extreme long, and the Brazilian real has joined it. Of the 13 currency futures with a current reading, these two now carry the highest positioning z-scores.

This note describes what the positioning data shows for both, how the two books were built, and why the way they were built matters more than the headline number. It is a description of positioning, not a forecast.

Why These Two Currencies Travel Together

The peso and the real are two of the best-known carry currencies. Both countries have for years offered interest rates well above those in the United States, which pays a holder of either currency to wait. When volatility is low and the dollar is not rising, funds tend to pile into both at once.

That is also why crowding in carry trades deserves attention. The income builds slowly, week by week. When a carry trade unwinds, it tends to happen quickly, because everyone holding it is exposed to the same shock at the same time.

Both contracts are listed at the CME and reported in the CFTC's Traders in Financial Futures report, where Leveraged Funds (hedge funds and CTAs) is the speculative category. Options are negligible in both markets, under 1% of open interest in the peso, so the futures only and combined readings agree. Our guide to the two versions explains why that is worth checking.

The Mexican Peso: Built Week by Week

Leveraged Funds net position in peso futures:

Three things stand out.

It is the largest peso long since June 2024. The last higher reading was 84,013 on 11 June 2024. The highest in the series remains 119,854, from April 2008.

It was not built in one move. The position rose through August, gave some back, then rose again. A book assembled over seven weeks, with a pause in the middle, reflects repeated decisions rather than one burst of activity.

Open interest grew with it. Total open interest went from 201,764 on 21 July to 327,528 on 8 September, up 62%. New money came in; the long did not just reflect shorts leaving.

Leveraged Funds are not alone. Asset Managers were also net long 63,103 contracts. On the other side, Dealers were net short 128,427, which is the normal shape: banks provide the other side of client flow.

Over the same period the peso strengthened. The dollar bought 17.47 pesos on 21 July and 16.96 on 8 September, a gain of about 3% for the peso.

What happened to the last peso long this size

The June 2024 reading is a useful warning about single numbers. The Leveraged Funds long jumped from 54,016 to 84,013 in one week, then fell to 27,304 the next. It printed one week before the June quarterly futures expiry, and it lasted exactly one report.

The current reading also comes one week before a quarterly expiry, in the third week of September. The difference is that this position was already above 74,000 before that week began. It is less likely to be a roll effect, but the report for 15 September will settle the question.

The Brazilian Real: One Big Week

Leveraged Funds net position in real futures:

The real's reading is more extreme by the numbers and less convincing by its shape.

The level is rare. Only 5 of the previous 749 weekly readings, going back to April 2011, were higher. The record is 32,847, from 3 September 2019.

Most of it came in one week. The move from 16,046 to 24,871 accounts for more than a third of the current long. For the three reports before that, the real was a moderate long with a COT Index between 80 and 86.

Open interest fell. It dropped from 127,273 to 110,644 in the same week the long jumped. When a net long rises while open interest falls, part of the change often comes from shorts closing rather than new longs arriving.

The last reading this high did not last. On 1 November 2022, Leveraged Funds were net long 31,515. A week later they were long 3,661.

Asset Managers, the slower money, hold a large and one-sided position: 53,527 long against 1,832 short, a net long of 51,695. They have been net long for at least a year, though the position is smaller than the 72,995 they held in September 2025.

The real firmed slightly over the summer. The dollar bought 5.17 reais on 30 June and 5.10 on 8 September, a gain of about 1% for the real.

When Both Were Extreme Before

Since 2011, the peso and the real have both carried a Leveraged Funds z-score of +2 or higher in the same week on eight reports. Excluding this one, those weeks form four separate episodes:

The peso gained over the following twelve weeks in three of the four episodes and lost in one. With four cases, that is not a pattern. It is four stories. The honest reading is that a joint extreme in these two currencies has not reliably ended badly for the peso, and it has not reliably ended well either.

Our wider study of how long extreme positioning lasts is a better guide than four data points: extremes often persist for weeks, and the timing of the turn is rarely visible in the positioning itself.

What to Watch in the Next Reports

• Does the real hold above 20,000? If the one-week jump was mostly shorts covering, it can fade as quickly as it came. If it holds for two or three reports, it looks like a deliberate position.
• Does the peso survive the September expiry? A long that stays near 80,000 after the roll is a position, not a technical effect.
• Do Asset Managers move? Leveraged Funds come and go. A reduction in the Asset Manager longs, especially in the real, would change the picture more than another week of hedge fund flow.
• What does the rest of the complex do? In June the crowding was a long-dollar book against the euro, franc and Canadian dollar. Whether those shorts rebuild or keep fading changes how isolated the peso and real longs are.

Where COTInsight Fits

• Pro includes 10 years of weekly history and CSV export, enough to put this peso reading next to June 2024 and the real reading next to November 2022 yourself.
• Ultimate adds the full archive back to 2006 for the peso, PDF reports, AI commentary, the REST API, and historical outcome statistics that show how often price was higher 4, 8 and 12 weeks after readings like this one, in each contract's own history.
• The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) plots the COT Index, z-score and regime on the chart, so an extreme like this one is visible where you already watch price.

See pricing or open the dashboard to see the current currency readings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the COT report show for the Mexican peso in September 2026?

On the report for Tuesday 8 September 2026, Leveraged Funds were net long 82,179 peso futures contracts, the largest position since June 2024, with a COT Index of 98.2 and a z-score of +2.44. Asset Managers were also net long 63,103 contracts.

What does the COT report show for the Brazilian real?

Leveraged Funds were net long 24,871 real contracts on the same report, with a COT Index of 100 and a z-score of +2.53. Only 5 earlier weekly readings since April 2011 were higher. About 8,825 contracts of the long were added in the final week.

Does an extreme long mean the peso or real will fall?

No. Extreme positioning describes how one-sided a market is, not when or whether it turns. The four previous weeks when both currencies were at an extreme long were followed by mixed peso moves. This article is descriptive and not investment advice.

Which COT category shows currency speculation?

The Leveraged Funds category in the Traders in Financial Futures report, which covers hedge funds and CTAs. See our forex guide for how the categories work.

How current is this data?

It reflects positions on Tuesday 8 September 2026. Anything that happened after that date is not in these numbers. The report covering Tuesday 15 September is the next to show changes.

Summary

Leveraged Funds are at an extreme long in both the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real on the 8 September 2026 report. The peso long, 82,179 contracts, is the largest since June 2024 and was built over seven weeks with open interest rising 62%. The real long, 24,871 contracts, is rarer by the numbers but arrived largely in one week while open interest fell, the same shape as a 2022 spike that vanished a week later. Both carry currencies being crowded at once has happened four times before since 2011, with mixed results for the peso. The coming reports, through the September expiry, will show which of the two positions is durable. This is a description of positioning data, not a forecast and not investment advice.