Oil Is Back Near $100 and Hedge Funds Are Selling

Key takeaways

• WTI crude futures rose from about $92 to about $101 a barrel between the CFTC reports of 22 September and 13 October 2026, a gain of about 10%.
• Over the same three weeks, Managed Money (hedge funds and CTAs) cut its NYMEX WTI net long from 142,588 to 102,765 contracts, a 28% drop.
• Almost all of it was long liquidation: longs fell by 40,524 contracts, shorts by only 701. Seven funds left the long side.
• The fund net long now sits at the 21st percentile of every weekly reading since 2006. For a market near $100, funds are lightly positioned.
• Price up, fund positioning down: that is a divergence, and it is the kind of setup COTInsight flags every week.

The Short Answer

Oil is back near $100 because of supply risk in the Middle East, not because hedge funds are chasing it. The weekly COT report shows the fast money doing the opposite of what the price chart suggests. While WTI climbed about 10% in three weeks, managed money sold more than a quarter of its crude long.

This note puts numbers on that split, using the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for NYMEX WTI crude oil, futures and options combined, through the report dated Tuesday 13 October 2026.

What the Crude Oil COT Report Shows This Week

Managed money positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil:

Three things stand out.

Funds built a big long in September, then sold it into the rally. The 22 September net long of 142,588 contracts was the largest since April. Three weeks later it was 102,765, down 39,823 contracts or 28%. It is now the smallest since early August.

The selling was all long liquidation. Long contracts fell by 40,524. Short contracts barely moved, down 701. Funds were not betting on lower oil. They were taking profits and cutting risk while the price went up.

Fewer funds are long. 75 managed money traders were long WTI on 22 September. On 13 October there were 68. The short side held steady at around 30 funds.

Price Up, Funds Out: Why the Divergence Matters

Most of the time, managed money in crude follows price. Funds buy strength and sell weakness. When the two move apart, the COT report is telling you something the chart alone cannot.

A rally that the fast money is not joining is a rally carried by someone else. Here that someone is the physical side of the market. Producers and merchants raised their net long by about 49,000 contracts over the same three weeks, and swap dealers added to their net short. That is the pattern of commercial buyers locking in supply as the risk of disruption rises, while speculators step back.

There are two ways this can resolve, and the next reports will show which:

• Funds come back. If supply worries keep oil above $100, the trend followers who just sold would have to buy back in. With funds only at the 21st percentile of their history, there is plenty of room for that buying.
• The rally fades. If the supply risk eases, a market that funds have already left has fewer forced sellers on the way down.

COTInsight's divergence reading flags this setup automatically when price and fund positioning move in opposite directions. Our divergence guide explains how to read it.

A Year Ago, Funds Were Net Short Oil

To see how light today's positioning is, look back twelve months. On 21 October 2025, managed money was net short NYMEX WTI by 29,995 contracts, the most bearish reading in the whole series since 2006. Funds then swung to a net long of 148,985 on 24 March 2026, during the spike that took WTI from the mid-60s to above $110 in five weeks.

Oil at $100 with funds this light is unusual. In 2018, a far lower oil price came with a fund long nearly five times today's. The money that could drive a squeeze higher is mostly on the sidelines.

Our z-score guide and COT Index guide show how these two readings are built and why we show both.

The Backdrop: Supply Risk, Not Demand

On 21 October, Brent traded near $110 and WTI near $98 to $99, with reports of attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy facilities keeping supply risk in the price. Inflation is running hot enough that the Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September, its first hike since 2023, and meets again on 27 and 28 October.

That mix explains the split in the COT data. Commercial buyers worry about getting barrels. Funds worry about a rate-hiking Fed and a price already near $100. When the two groups read the same market differently, the weekly report is where you see it first.

For the products, managed money is crowded long in RBOB gasoline (COT Index 97) and close to neutral in diesel. COTInsight's Energy Radar puts crude, gasoline and diesel positioning next to inventories and curve shape in one view. See how Energy Radar works.

What to Watch in the Next Reports

• The long count. 68 funds long is down from 75. A rebound back above 75 would mean funds are chasing the rally after all.
• The short side. Shorts have stayed near 93,000 contracts. A jump would mean funds are betting on a reversal, not only taking profits.
• Price vs positioning. If WTI holds near $100 while the net long keeps falling, the divergence widens. If price drops back toward $90 with funds already out, the move may have less fuel than it looks.
• The Fed on 28 October. Another hike, or a firm signal of one, would weigh on risk appetite across commodities.

The next COT report, with positions as of Tuesday 20 October, is released on Friday 23 October at 3:30 PM Eastern.

How COTInsight Tracks This Every Week

Finding a divergence like this in raw CFTC tables means lining up positions, trader counts and prices across weeks by hand. COTInsight does it the moment the report lands.

• Free and Pro show crude's net position, z-score, COT Index, regime and divergence every week. Pro adds 10 years of weekly history and CSV export, so you can put today's reading next to the 2018 record or last year's net short.
• Ultimate adds trader counts and positioning structure, which is how you see seven funds leave the long side, plus the full archive back to 2006, PDF reports, weekly AI commentary, Energy Radar, VS comparison and the REST API.
• The Historical Outcome Analyzer (Ultimate) shows what crude did 4, 8 and 12 weeks after every past reading like this one, in crude's own history. We tested that approach on 46 futures markets: tendencies picked on the first half of each market's history and scored only on the second half pointed the right way 56.1% of the time at 8 weeks, against a normal rate of 50.7%. The full test is in our guide to trading the COT report.
• The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) plots the COT Index, z-score and regime right under your crude chart, so a divergence like this one shows up next to price as it forms.

See pricing or open the dashboard. New to oil positioning? Start with our COT guide for crude oil traders.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are oil prices rising in October 2026?

Supply risk in the Middle East. Reports of attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy facilities kept Brent near $110 and WTI near $98 to $99 on 21 October. The COT report shows the rally is not being driven by hedge funds, who cut their WTI net long by 28% while the price rose.

Are hedge funds buying or selling oil?

Selling. Managed Money cut its NYMEX WTI net long from 142,588 contracts on 22 September to 102,765 on 13 October 2026. Longs fell by 40,524 contracts and shorts by only 701, so the selling was profit-taking, not new bets on lower prices.

Who is buying oil right now?

The physical side of the market. Producers and merchants raised their net long by about 49,000 contracts in the same three weeks, while swap dealers added to their net short.

Is oil crowded at $100?

Not on fund positioning. The managed money net long is at the 21st percentile of all weekly readings since 2006, the z-score is +0.32 and the COT Index is 45. Funds are lighter than at the March peak of 148,985 contracts.

What does the crude oil COT report show this week?

On the report for Tuesday 13 October 2026, Managed Money was net long 102,765 NYMEX WTI contracts, with 68 funds long and 33 short. The next report, for 20 October, is released on Friday 23 October.

Where can I see crude oil COT data every week?

COTInsight scores crude oil positioning every Friday, with z-score, COT Index, regime, divergence, trader counts and outcome history. The crude oil market page has an overview, and the full readings are in the dashboard.

Summary

Oil is near $100 again, but hedge funds are not the ones pushing it there. Between 22 September and 13 October 2026, WTI rose about 10% while Managed Money cut its NYMEX net long by 28%, from 142,588 to 102,765 contracts, almost entirely by closing longs. Producers and merchants bought instead. With the fund net long at the 21st percentile since 2006, crude at $100 is a market the fast money has mostly left. The next reports will show whether funds chase the rally back in or let it fade.

Data: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated report, futures and options combined, NYMEX WTI crude oil, through 13 October 2026. Prices are front-month WTI futures on report Tuesdays; 21 October prices from market reports. Past results do not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.