COT Positioning Record
Every Friday, after the CFTC releases the Commitments of Traders report, this page is updated with where the large speculators stand against their own history: which markets reached their biggest longs or shorts in years, and how long those stretches have lasted. Facts, not forecasts.
This week: 6 October 2026
5 markets reached their most extreme speculator positioning in at least a year. Butter: most net short on record (data since Jun 2006).
The record
| Market | Where speculators stand | Net contracts | Stretch at an extreme | Earlier stretches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butter | most net short on record (data since Jun 2006) | -843 | 9th week in a row | 16 earlier, typically 4 to 5 weeks |
| Cheese | most net short on record (data since Jan 2012) | -3,985 | not yet at an extreme | 17 earlier, typically 2 weeks |
| Brazilian real | biggest net long since Nov 2022 | +27,396 | 1st week in a row | 19 earlier, typically 1 week |
| Sugar | biggest net long since Dec 2022 | +257,364 | 9th week in a row | 10 earlier, typically 4 weeks |
| Rough rice | biggest net long since Mar 2024 | +2,180 | not yet at an extreme | 19 earlier, typically 2 weeks |
Most crowded this week
The markets where speculative positioning is furthest from its own 52-week average, the same rows shown live on the home page.
| Market | Crowd | 52-week z-score |
|---|---|---|
| Palladium | crowded short | -2.59 |
| Sugar | crowded long | +2.37 |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | crowded long | +1.99 |
| Natural Gas | crowded short | -1.95 |
| Live Cattle | crowded short | -1.77 |
| RBOB Gasoline | crowded long | +1.74 |
How to read this
Speculators are managed money for commodities and leveraged funds for financial futures, from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, futures and options combined. "Since" is the last week the net position was at least this far long (or short). A stretch counts the weeks in a row the position has sat at a 52-week z-score of 2 or more on the same side, and "typically" is the median length of the earlier stretches. Every record line is checked against the CFTC's own data before it is published.
This is a record of positioning, not a forecast. It says where the crowd stands, not what price does next.
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