Copper Holds Near Its Highs, Hedge Funds Cut Their Long 42%
Key takeaways
- COMEX copper futures have closed above $6.40 a pound on every CFTC report Tuesday since mid-August. On 20 October they were at $6.48, only 3.3% below 22 September.
- Over the same four weeks, Managed Money (hedge funds and CTAs) cut its copper net long from 82,649 to 48,009 contracts, down 42%. That is the smallest net long since April.
- Funds sold 28,963 long contracts, a 30% cut, and grew their shorts 40% to 19,852, the most since July 2025.
- The number of funds long fell from 93 to 79, while funds short rose from 22 to 34.
- Copper's z-score has swung from +1.69 to -1.38 in four weeks. COTInsight now classes the regime as Building Short.
The Short Answer
Copper's price is holding up, but the hedge fund money behind it is leaving. In four weeks, funds cut their net long by more than 40% while the price slipped just over 3%. When positioning and price split like this, the COT report is telling you the rally has lost one of its main buyers.
This note puts numbers on it, using the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for COMEX copper, futures and options combined, through the report dated Tuesday 20 October 2026.
What the Copper COT Report Shows This Week
Managed money positions in COMEX copper:
| Report date | Funds long | Funds short | Contracts long | Contracts short | Net position | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 September 2026 | 93 | 22 | 96,824 | 14,175 | 82,649 | $6.70 |
| 29 September 2026 | 89 | 21 | 92,872 | 14,163 | 78,709 | $6.49 |
| 6 October 2026 | 88 | 24 | 77,381 | 15,916 | 61,465 | $6.64 |
| 13 October 2026 | 86 | 27 | 78,147 | 16,977 | 61,170 | $6.53 |
| 20 October 2026 | 79 | 34 | 67,861 | 19,852 | 48,009 | $6.48 |
Three things stand out.
Most of the move is funds selling longs. Long contracts fell by 28,963, which is 84% of the 34,640 contract drop in the net. Funds are taking profit on a long that ran all year.
New shorts are arriving too. Short contracts rose 40% to 19,852, the most since July 2025, and 34 funds are now short, the most since June 2025. That is still a small short in a market of this size, but it has grown in each of the last three reports.
The price has not followed. On 6 October the price rose while funds cut 15,491 long contracts. On 20 October it was within 3.3% of where it stood when the selling started. Our divergence guide explains why a market that holds up while the speculators leave deserves attention.
More Contracts, Fewer Fund Bulls
| 22 September 2026 | 20 October 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open interest | 321,565 | 341,240 | +6% |
| Fund longs | 96,824 | 67,861 | -30% |
| Fund shorts | 14,175 | 19,852 | +40% |
| Funds long | 93 | 79 | -14 |
| Funds short | 22 | 34 | +12 |
Open interest is at its highest since July 2024, yet hedge funds hold fewer long contracts than at any time since spring. Someone else is holding the new positions. That matters because a rally carried by commercial buyers and physical demand behaves differently from one carried by trend followers. Our open interest guide covers how to read the two together.
How Extreme Is the Copper Selling?
| Measure | 20 October 2026 | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Net position | +48,009 | Smallest net long since 7 April 2026 |
| Z-score (52 weeks) | -1.38 | Below the one-year average, down from +1.69 on 22 September |
| COT Index (3 years) | 72 | Still in the upper part of the 3-year range |
| 4-week change | -34,640 | Net long down 42% |
| Weeks net long in a row | 94 | Every report since 7 January 2025 |
The two gauges tell different parts of the story. The z-score compares this week with the last 52 weeks, when funds were long most of the time, and on that view the position has dropped fast. The COT Index looks at three years and still puts funds in the upper part of their range, because the long was so large to begin with. Our z-score guide and COT Index guide explain why we show both.
The speed is the point. Copper went from a z-score of +1.69 (a crowded long) to -1.38 in four reports. COTInsight's regime engine reads that as Building Short: funds are not yet bearish, but they are moving that way week after week.
Copper vs the Precious Metals
| Metal | Managed money net | Z-score | COT Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | +108,685 | -0.33 | 30 |
| Silver | +3,746 | -1.59 | 22 |
| Copper | +48,009 | -1.38 | 72 |
| Platinum | +6,615 | -0.72 | 52 |
| Palladium | -12,143 | -2.89 | 24 |
Funds are pulling back across the whole metals complex. Gold and silver longs have been trimmed for weeks, and palladium is an outright short, as we showed in our palladium note. Copper was the last metal where funds were still crowded long. That has now changed. COTInsight's VS comparison mode (Ultimate) puts any two markets side by side, so you can watch copper and silver positioning move together in one view.
Why Fading Fund Support Matters
A market can rise without hedge funds, but it rarely rises as fast. Trend followers add fuel to a rally and they also add to the selling when it turns. With funds already cutting while the price holds, two outcomes are possible. Either physical buyers keep the price up and funds come back, or the price catches down to the positioning.
Our study of what happens after a COT extreme shows why the answer differs market by market. The Historical Outcome Analyzer (Ultimate) shows what copper itself did 4, 8 and 12 weeks after past readings like this one, so you judge the setup on copper's own record rather than a generic rule.
What to Watch in the Next Reports
- The long count. 79 funds long is the fewest since April. A drop toward 70 would mean the exit is still running.
- The short side. 19,852 short contracts is a 15-month high. If shorts keep rising while the price holds, a squeeze becomes possible.
- Open interest. Rising open interest with falling fund longs means commercial and other buyers are absorbing the selling. If open interest falls too, the market is deleveraging.
- The rest of metals. Silver and gold positioning weakened before copper did this autumn. A turn there is worth watching alongside copper.
The next COT report, with positions as of Tuesday 27 October, is released on Friday 30 October at 3:30 PM Eastern.
How COTInsight Tracks This Every Week
Spotting a quiet exit like this in raw CFTC tables means tracking longs, shorts, trader counts and open interest week after week, and comparing them with price. COTInsight does it the moment the report lands.
- Free and Pro show copper's net position, z-score, COT Index and regime every week. Pro adds 10 years of weekly history and CSV export, so you can put this four-week drop next to past copper sell-offs.
- Ultimate adds trader counts and positioning structure, which is how you see 14 funds leave the long side and 12 join the short side, plus the full archive back to 2006, PDF reports, weekly AI commentary, VS comparison and the REST API.
- The Historical Outcome Analyzer (Ultimate) shows copper's own track record after readings like this one. We tested that approach on 46 futures markets: tendencies picked on the first half of each market's history and scored only on the second half pointed the right way 56.1% of the time at 8 weeks, against a normal rate of 50.7%. The full test is in our guide to trading the COT report.
- The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) plots the COT Index, z-score and regime right under your copper chart, so you see the funds leaving while the price holds.
See pricing or open the dashboard. New to copper positioning? Start with our COT guide for copper traders.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are hedge funds selling copper?
Yes. Managed Money cut its COMEX copper net long by 42% in four weeks, from 82,649 contracts on 22 September to 48,009 on 20 October 2026. Funds sold 28,963 long contracts and added 5,677 shorts.
Is copper still crowded long?
No longer on a one-year view. The z-score fell from +1.69 to -1.38 in four weeks. On a three-year view the COT Index is 72, still in the upper part of the range, because the long was very large to begin with.
Why is the copper price holding up while funds sell?
Other buyers are absorbing the selling. Open interest rose 6% to its highest since July 2024 while fund longs fell 30%, so new positions are being held by traders other than hedge funds.
Are hedge funds short copper?
Funds are still net long, but the short side is growing. Short contracts rose 40% to 19,852, the most since July 2025, and the number of funds short rose from 22 to 34.
What does the copper COT report show this week?
On the report for Tuesday 20 October 2026, Managed Money held 67,861 long and 19,852 short COMEX copper contracts, with 79 funds long and 34 short. The next report, for 27 October, is released on Friday 30 October.
Where can I see copper COT data every week?
COTInsight scores copper positioning every Friday, with z-score, COT Index, regime, trader counts and outcome history. The copper market page has an overview, and the full readings are in the dashboard.
Summary
Copper is holding near its highs while hedge funds walk away from it. Between 22 September and 20 October 2026, Managed Money cut its COMEX copper net long by 42% to 48,009 contracts, sold nearly a third of its longs and grew its shorts to a 15-month high. The price fell just 3.3% over the same weeks. That gap between price and positioning is the thing to watch: either buyers outside the hedge fund world keep carrying copper, or the price has some catching up to do.
Data: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated report, futures and options combined, COMEX copper, through 20 October 2026. Prices are front-month copper futures on report Tuesdays. Past results do not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.