Hedge Funds Piled Into Commodities, Now They Are Cutting
Key takeaways
- Across 20 major US commodity futures, Managed Money (hedge funds and CTAs) more than doubled its combined net long in five weeks, from 815,129 contracts on 4 August to 1,782,497 on 8 September 2026. That was the biggest combined bet since April 2022.
- It came with records: the largest corn net long since the CFTC's data began in 2006 (431,062), the largest soybean net long (266,031) and the fastest buying swing ever seen in sugar (428,950 contracts in ten weeks).
- Since 8 September funds have cut 316,861 contracts, or 18%, led by corn, natural gas, gold, WTI crude and cotton.
- Not everything is being sold. Sugar and soybean meal longs are still at or near records, and funds hold a record short in lean hogs and their biggest natural gas short since November 2024.
Why This Matters Now
Commodities have been one of the big market stories of 2026, and hedge funds were late to it. At the start of January, the combined managed money net long across the 20 markets in this note was just 37,480 contracts, close to flat. By early September it was almost 1.8 million.
When fast money arrives that quickly, the useful question is not whether prices went up. It is what happens when the same money starts to leave. The last four COT reports show that it has started. This note breaks the move down market by market, using the CFTC Disaggregated report, futures and options combined, through Tuesday 6 October 2026.
The Five-Week Pile-In
Combined managed money net long, 20 US commodity futures:
| Report date | Combined net long |
|---|---|
| 6 January 2026 | 37,480 |
| 30 June 2026 | 303,071 |
| 4 August 2026 | 815,129 |
| 8 September 2026 | 1,782,497 |
| 6 October 2026 | 1,465,636 |
Between 4 August and 8 September the combined net long grew by 967,368 contracts. Almost nine-tenths of that came from two places:
- Grains and oilseeds (corn, soybeans, both wheats, soybean meal and soybean oil): +533,186
- Sugar alone: +324,865
Energy and metals added far less. WTI crude added 38,289, and gold only 7,150.
The Records Behind It
Corn: the biggest fund long in the data
On 1 September, Managed Money was net long 431,062 corn contracts. The previous high in the Disaggregated data, which starts in June 2006, was 429,189 in September 2010. Five weeks later the net long is 317,359. Funds cut 107,812 contracts in four weeks, 60,491 of them in the latest week alone. Our October note on corn and soybeans puts this next to USDA's crop numbers.
Soybeans and soybean meal: still near the top
The soybean net long peaked at 266,031 on 8 September, above the previous record of 253,889 from May 2012. It is still 251,660, with a COT Index of 97. Soybean meal set a new record of 207,416 on 29 September, far above the pre-2026 high of 155,063, and was still 206,804 on 6 October. Funds have added 47,246 meal contracts since 8 September while selling almost everything else.
Sugar: the fastest swing on record
On 23 June, funds were net short 185,483 sugar contracts. By 1 September they were net long 243,467. That is a swing of 428,950 contracts in ten weeks, the largest ten-week buying swing in sugar since 2006. The previous largest was 318,018, over the 2019 to 2020 winter.
Sugar is also the one market where funds are still buying hard. They added 29,543 contracts in the latest week, taking the net long to 257,364, the largest since December 2022. The z-score is +2.37 and the COT Index 100: by both measures, the most crowded long in this group. Our COT guide for sugar traders explains how to read it.
Who Is Selling Now
From 8 September to 6 October, the biggest cuts in managed money net position:
| Market | Change since 8 Sept | Net position, 6 Oct |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | -107,812 | 317,359 long |
| Natural gas (Henry Hub) | -48,004 | 144,681 short |
| Cotton | -36,333 | 63,837 long |
| WTI crude | -34,848 | 104,491 long |
| Wheat (Chicago) | -33,805 | 29,543 short |
| Wheat (Kansas City) | -27,208 | 24,040 long |
| Gold | -24,728 | 114,820 long |
| Copper | -20,552 | 61,465 long |
Natural gas stands out. Funds were net short 96,677 contracts on 8 September and 144,681 on 6 October, the largest managed money short since November 2024, with a z-score of -1.95 and a COT Index of 5. Going into winter, the fast money is heavily positioned for lower US gas prices. Our note on EU gas storage and Henry Hub covers the European side of that trade.
Gold, copper and crude were all sold at the same time, which looks like funds reducing risk across the board rather than reacting to one market. Our gold note shows that 26 funds left the gold long side in five weeks.
Lean hogs are the other short worth watching. Funds set a record net short of 44,186 contracts on 29 September, beating the pre-2026 record of 31,110 from May 2023. They covered some in the latest week, to 35,272.
What a Crowded Exit Looks Like
Managed money tends to follow price. In our study of 23 commodity markets, the direction of managed money's weekly change matched the previous week's price move 68.4% of the time. That is why fund positioning builds fastest late in a move, and why the reversal, when it comes, can also be fast. Our managed money guide covers the full study.
Three readings tell you where a market sits in that cycle:
- How stretched the position is. A z-score above +2 or a COT Index near 100, as in sugar today, means the fund long is at the edge of its own history.
- Whether funds are still adding. Sugar and soybean meal: still adding. Corn: cutting fast.
- Breadth. The number of funds on each side. When the long count falls while the net position is still large, the exit has started.
COTInsight shows all three for every market every Friday, and its regime reading labels the phase. On 6 October, for example, corn and cotton were both classed as Distributing: large longs being reduced. The crowded-trend guide shows how to use those labels.
What to Watch in the Next Reports
- Corn. 317,359 is still a big long. Another week like the last one, when funds sold 60,491 contracts, would take it below 260,000.
- Sugar. The most crowded long in this group, and still growing. A first week of selling would be worth noticing.
- Natural gas. At a z-score of -1.95, the short is close to extreme. Winter weather is the usual risk to a big gas short.
- The combined total. A fall back toward the 815,129 of early August would mean the late-summer pile-in has been unwound.
The next COT report, with positions as of Tuesday 13 October, is released on Friday 16 October at 3:30 PM Eastern.
See Every Market's Positioning in One Place
This note covers 20 markets. Building it from the raw CFTC files takes hours of work every week. COTInsight does it automatically for 350+ markets the moment the report is published.
- Free and Pro show net position, z-score, COT Index and regime for every market, every week. Pro adds 10 years of weekly history and CSV export.
- Ultimate adds the full archive back to 2006, where every record in this note was checked, plus trader counts, PDF reports, weekly AI commentary, the REST API, VS comparison (corn against soybeans, or sugar against coffee, side by side) and Grain Radar and Energy Radar, which put fund positioning next to USDA and EIA fundamentals.
- The Historical Outcome Analyzer (Ultimate) shows what each market did 4, 8 and 12 weeks after every past reading like today's, on that market's own record. Agricultural markets are where this works best: in our out-of-sample test, tendencies found in the first half of each grain, soft and livestock market's history pointed the right way 59.1% of the time at 8 weeks on the second half, against a normal rate of 51.8%. The full test is in our guide to trading the COT report.
- The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) puts the COT Index, z-score and regime under any of these charts.
See pricing or open the dashboard.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are hedge funds buying commodities?
They were, very fast, and now they are selling. Across 20 major US commodity futures, Managed Money's combined net long more than doubled from 815,129 contracts on 4 August 2026 to 1,782,497 on 8 September, then fell 18% to 1,465,636 by 6 October.
Which commodities are hedge funds most long?
On the 6 October 2026 report, the largest managed money net longs were corn (317,359 contracts), sugar (257,364), soybeans (251,660) and soybean meal (206,804). Sugar is the most stretched, with a z-score of +2.37 and a COT Index of 100.
Which commodities are hedge funds short?
Natural gas, with a net short of 144,681 contracts, the largest since November 2024. Funds are also net short lean hogs (35,272, after a record 44,186 on 29 September), Chicago wheat (29,543) and cocoa (14,494).
Did hedge funds set a record in corn?
Yes. Managed Money was net long 431,062 corn contracts on 1 September 2026, the largest in the CFTC Disaggregated data, which begins in 2006. The previous high was 429,189 in September 2010.
What does the COT report show for commodities this week?
On the report for Tuesday 6 October 2026, funds were cutting longs in corn, cotton, crude, gold and copper, adding to sugar and holding near-record longs in soybeans and soybean meal. The next report, for 13 October, is released on Friday 16 October.
Summary
Hedge funds made a fast, large bet on commodities in late summer 2026. Across 20 major US futures, the managed money net long more than doubled in five weeks to 1,782,497 contracts on 8 September, the largest since April 2022, driven by grains, oilseeds and sugar. That bet brought a record corn long, a record soybean long and the fastest buying swing in sugar since 2006. Since then funds have cut 18%, led by corn, natural gas, cotton, crude and gold, while still adding to sugar and soybean meal and holding a near-record short in lean hogs and their biggest natural gas short since November 2024. The pile-in is being unwound, but not evenly, and the markets where funds are still adding are the most stretched.
Data: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated report, futures and options combined, through 6 October 2026. The 20 markets: COMEX gold, silver and copper; NYMEX platinum, WTI crude, RBOB gasoline, NY Harbor ULSD and Henry Hub natural gas; CBOT corn, soybeans, SRW wheat, HRW wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil; ICE US sugar No. 11, coffee, cocoa and cotton; CME live cattle and lean hogs. Past results do not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.