Hedge Funds Hold a Record Lean Hog Short
Key takeaways
- Lean hog futures fell about 22% between the CFTC reports of 18 August and 20 October 2026, from 92.07 to 72.06 cents a pound.
- Managed Money (hedge funds and CTAs) is net short 41,133 contracts. The record, 44,186, was set three weeks earlier on 29 September. Before this year, the deepest fund short was 31,110 in May 2023.
- 82 funds are short lean hogs, the most in any report since 2006. Fund short contracts hit a record 111,260 on 13 October, about 45% above the old 2018 high.
- One year ago, on 30 September 2025, the same funds held a record net long of 146,288 contracts. They have swung from one record to the other in twelve months.
- The COT Index is 1.6, the bottom of its three-year range. COTInsight's crowd gauge reads crowded short for the funds and crowded long for small traders.
The Short Answer
Hog prices are falling because hedge funds have built the biggest short in the history of the modern COT report, at a time when pork demand is in its seasonal lull. Funds have been net short every week since early June, and the short side keeps attracting new names.
This note puts numbers on it, using the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for CME lean hogs, futures and options combined, through the report dated Tuesday 20 October 2026.
What the Lean Hogs COT Report Shows This Week
Managed money positions in CME lean hogs:
| Report date | Funds long | Funds short | Contracts long | Contracts short | Net position | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 August 2026 | 59 | 71 | 58,878 | 90,013 | -31,135 | 90.10 |
| 22 September 2026 | 54 | 79 | 66,943 | 102,491 | -35,548 | 81.71 |
| 29 September 2026 | 57 | 79 | 66,006 | 110,192 | -44,186 | 80.65 |
| 6 October 2026 | 57 | 77 | 73,149 | 108,421 | -35,272 | 77.57 |
| 13 October 2026 | 58 | 77 | 69,172 | 111,260 | -42,088 | 74.48 |
| 20 October 2026 | 58 | 82 | 69,290 | 110,423 | -41,133 | 72.06 |
Three things stand out.
The short is a record, not just an extreme. CFTC data in this format goes back to June 2006. Before 2026 the deepest fund net short in lean hogs was 31,110 contracts. Funds broke that this autumn and set a new record of 44,186 on 29 September. Today's 41,133 is the second-deepest reading ever.
The number of funds short has never been higher. 82 managed money traders were short on 20 October, up from 71 in late August. The long side has stayed at about 54 to 59 funds. This is a broad trade, not a few large accounts.
Shorts are at record size. Fund short contracts reached 111,260 on 13 October and were 110,423 a week later. The highest level before this year was 76,409, in August 2018. Fund shorts now make up about 27% of all lean hog open interest, the highest share in any report since 2006.
From Record Long to Record Short in a Year
| 30 September 2025 | 29 September 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Managed money net | +146,288 (record long) | -44,186 (record short) |
| Contracts long | 157,892 | 66,006 |
| Contracts short | 11,604 | 110,192 |
| Funds short | 27 | 79 |
Twelve months ago, hedge funds held the biggest net long in lean hogs on record. Over the following year they sold more than 90,000 long contracts and added nearly 100,000 shorts. The net position moved by about 190,000 contracts, from one record to the other.
Swings that size are what make livestock interesting for COT traders. Funds in hogs follow the trend hard in both directions, and when a whole crowd is on one side, the market has to find buyers from somewhere when it turns.
How Extreme Is the Lean Hog Short?
| Measure | 20 October 2026 | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Net position | -41,133 | Second-deepest net short since 2006 |
| Record net short | -44,186 (29 September 2026) | Set three weeks ago |
| Z-score (52 weeks) | -1.35 | Well below the one-year average |
| COT Index (3 years) | 1.6 | Bottom of the 3-year range |
| Weeks net short in a row | 21 | Every report since 2 June 2026 |
The z-score looks less dramatic than the record would suggest. That is because the short was built slowly, over five months, so the one-year average has moved down with it. The COT Index has no such blind spot: at 1.6, funds are at the very bottom of their three-year range. Our z-score guide and COT Index guide explain why we show both.
COTInsight's crowd gauge adds a second layer. While the funds are crowded short, small traders (the positions too small to report individually) are crowded long, with an index of 90. The professionals and the small speculators are on opposite sides of this market.
Why Hogs Are Falling
The seasonal pattern is working for the shorts. Pork demand fades after the summer grilling season, and hog supply builds into the autumn. Market reports put December lean hog futures near 58 cents a pound on 28 October, a level last traded in September 2020. Funds have ridden that move from the start.
The question for anyone watching now is not whether the trend is real. It clearly is. The question is how much selling is left when a record number of funds are already short.
Why a Record Short Matters
A record short is a trade with the most conviction behind it and the most buying to do if it turns. In a market that moves on seasonal supply and on export news, a change in either can send 82 funds to the exit at once.
Our study of how long extreme positioning lasts measured 3,192 episodes across 217 markets: the median extreme lasts about three weeks, and many get more extreme before they turn. This one has already lasted longer than that. That is why we read each market on its own record. Our out-of-sample tests found that a market's own COT history carried the most information in agricultural markets, livestock included. The Historical Outcome Analyzer (Ultimate) shows what lean hogs did 4, 8 and 12 weeks after every past reading like this one.
What to Watch in the Next Reports
- The short count. 82 funds short is a record. A fall in that number while the price stabilises is the first sign of covering.
- The long side. Long contracts have held between about 66,000 and 73,000 since 22 September. A rise would mean some funds are starting to bet on a bottom.
- The record. A new net short beyond 44,186 would mean the trade is still attracting sellers despite the price drop.
- Live cattle. Funds are still net long cattle (51,143 contracts). A shift there would tell you whether the selling is spreading across livestock.
The next COT report, with positions as of Tuesday 27 October, is released on Friday 30 October at 3:30 PM Eastern.
How COTInsight Tracks This Every Week
Spotting a record like this in raw CFTC tables means tracking positions, trader counts and open interest against twenty years of history. COTInsight does it the moment the report lands.
- Free and Pro show lean hogs net position, z-score, COT Index and regime every week. Pro adds 10 years of weekly history and CSV export, so you can put this short next to the 2023 and 2018 lows.
- Ultimate adds trader counts and positioning structure, which is how you see a record 82 funds on the short side, plus the full archive back to 2006, PDF reports, weekly AI commentary, VS comparison and the REST API.
- The Historical Outcome Analyzer (Ultimate) shows lean hogs' own track record after readings like this one. We tested that approach on 46 futures markets: tendencies picked on the first half of each market's history and scored only on the second half pointed the right way 56.1% of the time at 8 weeks, against a normal rate of 50.7%. The full test is in our guide to trading the COT report.
- The COTInsight TradingView indicator (Ultimate) plots the COT Index, z-score and regime right under your hog chart, so you see the record short next to price.
See pricing or open the dashboard. For the bigger picture across commodities, see our note on where hedge funds are positioned in commodities.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are hog prices falling in October 2026?
Seasonal supply is building as pork demand fades after summer, and hedge funds are pressing the move with a record short. Front-month lean hog futures fell from 92.07 cents on 18 August to 72.06 cents on 20 October 2026.
Are hedge funds short lean hogs?
Yes, by a record margin. Managed Money was net short 41,133 contracts on 20 October 2026. The record is 44,186, set on 29 September 2026. Before this year the deepest fund short was 31,110 in May 2023.
How many hedge funds are short lean hogs?
82 managed money traders were short on 20 October 2026, the most in any CFTC report since the current format began in 2006.
Could lean hogs see a short squeeze?
A record short means a lot of buying is needed if the price turns. The signs to watch are a falling number of funds short, falling short contracts and a price that stops making new lows.
What does the lean hogs COT report show this week?
On the report for Tuesday 20 October 2026, Managed Money held 69,290 long and 110,423 short lean hog contracts, with 58 funds long and 82 short. The next report, for 27 October, is released on Friday 30 October.
Where can I see lean hogs COT data every week?
COTInsight scores lean hogs positioning every Friday, with z-score, COT Index, regime, trader counts and outcome history. The lean hogs market page has an overview, and the full readings are in the dashboard.
Summary
Hedge funds hold a record short in lean hogs. Managed Money set a new record net short of 44,186 contracts on 29 September 2026, sits at 41,133 now, and has a record 82 funds on the short side. A year earlier the same group held a record long. The price has fallen 22% in two months and the COT Index sits at the bottom of its range. The trend is strong, and the crowd behind it is the biggest the report has ever shown.
Data: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated report, futures and options combined, CME lean hogs, through 20 October 2026 (history from 13 June 2006). Prices are front-month lean hog futures on report Tuesdays. Past results do not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.